When Do I Kill My Game? 💀

Most indie industry data analysts (including Simon Carless of GameDiscoverCo and Chris Zukowski of How To Market A Game) suggest having at least 5,000 to 10,000 wishlists before launching.

Reaching this threshold significantly increases your likelihood of appearing on Steam's organic Popular Upcoming carousel during the week prior to launch, which in turn fuels high initial sales velocity and pushes your game into the New and Trending section. Games releasing with fewer than 1,000 wishlists often get swallowed by the hundreds of daily Steam releases.

On average, indie games convert between 5% and 20% of their total wishlist count into unit sales during the first week of launch.

If you have 10,000 wishlists at a 10% conversion rate, you can realistically expect approximately 1,000 units sold in week one. Factors that increase conversion include high demo playtime, positive review velocity, localized translations, and strong genre demand (e.g. Roguelikes, Simulation, and Deckbuilders historically convert higher than narrative puzzle games).

A good rule of thumb is that developers take home roughly 50% to 55% of gross revenue (often called the Golden Ratio or Gaben's Toll).

Here is where the gross revenue goes:

• Valve Cut: 30% platform distribution fee.
• Regional Pricing: Average 10%–15% discount impact across international markets.
• Refunds: Typical Steam return rates are 5% to 8%.
• VAT & Taxes: Varies by country and withholding agreements.

According to historical data from the Boxleiter method and multiple indie publisher studies:

• Year 1 Net Revenue: Approximately 3.0x your Week 1 revenue.
• Lifetime (5-Year) Revenue: Approximately 7.5x your Week 1 revenue.

The long tail is sustained by participating in Steam seasonal sales (Summer, Autumn, Winter, Spring), genre-specific festivals, bundle sales, and major content updates.

Steam Next Fest is a slot machine heavily influenced by your pre-festival momentum and demo engagement:

If you enter with fewer than 1,000 wishlists, the median gain is roughly 300 to 700 wishlists. If you enter with 2,000+ wishlists and have a polished, streamable demo, you can gain 1,500 to 5,000+ wishlists during the festival week as Steam features games with high active demo player counts on festival category pages.

Cancelling a project is painful, but continuing on a commercially hopeless trajectory consumes irreplaceable time and savings. Red flags include:

• Your wishlist velocity is flat (< 5–10 wishlists/day) despite public devlogs, trailers, and social outreach.
• Your personal savings runway has shrunk to under 3 months without an outside publisher or contract income.
• Your projected Year 1 net revenue cannot cover a fraction of the debt or lost opportunity cost incurred during development.

In these scenarios, cutting scope to release a tight vertical slice or pivoting to a fresh prototype with proven market hook is often the healthiest professional move.